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Cisco 2014-2019 Mobile Data Forecasts

In this post, you can find several important points about mobile data traffic growth between 2014 and 2019.
This summary info will provide you a general view on mobile data traffic growth.

The original document is released by Cisco with the name Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast 2014–2019.
Here, I tried to make a little summary. You can also find the original document link at the end of this post.

The Mobile Network in 2014

• Global mobile data traffic grew %69 in 2014.

• Last year’s mobile data traffic(30 exabyte) was nearly 30 times the size of the entire global Internet in 2000 (1 exabyte).

• Mobile video traffic exceeded %50 of total mobile data traffic for the first time in 2012. It was %55 by the end of 2014.

• Almost half a billion (497 million) mobile devices and connections were added in 2014

• In 2014, on an average, a smart device generated 22 times more traffic than a non-smart device.

• Mobile network (cellular) connection speeds grew %20 in 2014. (Average downstream speed in 2014 was 1,683 kbps, up from 1,387 kbps in 2013)

• In 2014, a 4G connection generated 10 times more traffic on average than a non-4G connection. Although 4G connections represent only %6 of mobile connections today, they already account for %40 of mobile data traffic.

• Average smartphone usage grew %45 in 2014 (563 MB to 819 MB per month).

• Per-user iOS mobile devices (smartphones and tablets) data usage marginally surpassed that of Android mobile devices data usage

• In 2014, %27 of mobile devices were potentially IPv6-capable.

The Mobile Network Through 2019

• Global mobile data traffic will increase nearly tenfold between 2014 and 2019.

• Monthly global mobile data traffic will surpass 24.3 exabytes by 2019.

• By the end of 2014, the number of mobile-connected devices will exceed the number of people on earth, and by 2019 there will be nearly 1.5 mobile devices per capita. (11.5 billion mobile-connected devices by 2019, population will be 7,6 billion)

• Mobile network connection speeds will increase more than twofold by 2019. The average mobile network connection speed:
o 1.7 Mbps in 2014
o 2.0 Mbps by 2016
o 4.0 Mbps by 2019

• By 2019, 4G will be %26 of connections, but %68 of total traffic.

• By 2019, more than half of all devices connected to the mobile network will be “smart” devices.

• By 2019, %50 of all global mobile devices could potentially be capable of connecting to an IPv6 mobile network

• Nearly three-fourths of the world’s mobile data traffic will be video by 2019(%72 of total mobile data traffic)

• The average smartphone will generate 4.0 GB of traffic per month by 2019, a fivefold increase over the 2014 average of 819 MB per month.

• The Middle East and Africa will have the strongest mobile data traffic growth of any region with a %72 CAGR.

For the detailed information, check the following document, prepared by Cisco.
Cisco Visual Networking Index:Global Mobile
Data Traffic Forecast (2014–2019)

Cisco 2010-2015 Forecasts

Annual global IP traffic will reach 1 zettabyte by the end of 2015. This is more than 80 exabytes per months.

IP traffic will grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 32 percent from 2010 to 2015.

The gigabit equivalent of all movies ever made(7,3 petabytes) will cross global ip networks every 5 minutes.

In 2015, 20 million households generate half a terabyte data per month. By end of 2010, 6 million household has exceed 1 terabyte data per month.

In 2010 there was one networked device per capita, but in 2015 this will be twice as high as global population and it is equal to two device per capita.

By 2015, IP traffic per capita will reach 11 Gigabytes.This was 3 Gigabytes in 2010.

The growing amouth of internet traffic is originating from non-PC devices, like TVs, tablets, smartphones,M2M (machine-to-machine modules) etc. PC originating traffic will grow at 33 percent, while TVs will grow at 101 percent, tablets will grow 216 percent, smartphones grow at 144 percent and M2M will 258 percent.

In 2010, the 63 percent of IP traffic was wired, but in 2015 wireless devices (wi-fi and mobile devices) will exceed wired devices with 54 percent of all the traffic.

Busy hour traffic is increasing more than the average traffic. Busy-hour traffic will increase fivefold by 2015, while average traffic will increase fourfold. By 2015 during average hours, the traffic will be equivalent to 200 million people streaming high-definition video continuously.This will be 500 million people for busy-hours.

Global Internet video traffic surpassed global peer-to-peer in 2010 and by 2012 internet video traffic will be 50 percent of customer internet traffic. This will be 62 percent in 2015.

If you want to watch the videos pass thorought the global ip networks every seconds in 2015, you must be free for 5 years. Every seconds, 1 million minutes of video.

The sum of all forms of video (TV, video on demand, Internet, and P2P) will continue to be approximately 90 percent of global consumer traffic by 2015.

Internet video to TV will be over 16 percent of consumer Internet video traffic in 2015, it was 9 percent in 2010.

Mobile data traffic will increase 26 times between 2010 and 2015. Mobile traffic grow with a CAGR 92 percent between 2010 and 2015 reaching 6.3 exabytes per month by 2015.

Mobile traffic will grow three times faster than fixed IP traffic from 2010 to 2015. Global mobile traffic was 1 percent of total IP traffic, it will be 8 percent of total IP traffic in 2015.

IP traffic in Middle East and Africa will be 2 exabytes per month by 2015 at a CAGR 52 percent. In Latin America this will be 4.7 exabytes per month and at a CAGR 48 percent. The fastest grow will be in Latin America.

Business IP traffic will grow at a CAGR of 24 percent from 2010 to 2015.

Business Internet traffic will grow at a faster pace than IP WAN. IP WAN will grow at a CAGR of 18 percent, compared to a CAGR of 19 percent for fixed business Internet and 79 percent for mobile business Internet.

Business videoconferencing traffic is growing significantly(sixfold over the forecast period) faster than overall business IP traffic, at a CAGR of 41 percent from 2010-2015.

Web-based video conferencing will reached 50 percent of total business video conferencing traffic in 2010. Web-based video conferencing will grow faster than average business video conferencing, at a CAGR of 45 percent.

Business IP traffic will grow fastest in the Middle East and Africa with CAGR of 30 percent, a faster pace than the global average of 24 percent.

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